Post by clutchbrady on Mar 21, 2023 20:59:14 GMT -5
Alright, it's pet peeve time. I'm going to preface this incoming rant by stating that I understand how contestants make some silly decisions sometimes; pressure does funny things to all of us and I can't say I would be any different, but this particular thing has driven me a bit mad. This is also very niche, but this is a very niche board! Lol.
Here's a hypothetical scenario. Say Player 2 just lost her turn somehow, and it's your turn. You're playing in the fourth round, and the puzzle will be completed/a new puzzle will be played for the Final Spin.
The puzzle looks something like this;
BREA_ING NEW _ROUN_
Obviously, you know it and there are three consonants with which you can make money on. However, there's always a risk and you're guaranteed to win $1000 if you solve right now and get the house minimum.
Should you:
A. Solve for the house minimum
B. Spin it once, maybe for a big number, then solve
C. Spin for all consonants, then solve
I think there's one specifically WRONG answer here. And it's B. And I see so many people do it so many times, particularly after Player 2, in this scenario, loses a large sum of money.
In the Round 4 layout for Season 39 (for example), there are 3 spaces you can hit which will cause you to lose your turn/money. That's a 12.5% chance. Otherwise, the other 87.5% of the time you hit money, ranging from $500 to $5000. The average of all dollar amounts for Round 4 is $907.
If we calculate for something called expected value for each scenario, we should figure out what's best.
A. 100% X $1000 = +$1000. You're always winning $1000 when you know the puzzle.
B. 12.5% X -$1000 (you lose your chance at $1K if you lose your turn) + 87.5% X $907. Sum those together and we get an EV of around +$670. But you're already going to win $1000 if you spin only once and don't hit the $5000.
C. For this, the probability of spinning safely on three consecutive spins is 67% (.875^3). For three consecutive spins you could earn on average $2721. (67% x $2721) + (33% x -$1000) gives us an EV of about +$1493.
Now there are some factors I could be leaving out (this is a specific scenario with no double consonants), so please if you think I'm wrong, correct me. There are confounding factors in this situation and things would change depending on the round too; if you hold the MDW, or if you're in Round 3 and there's a chance to get both halves of the car, etc.
So, ranking our options in this situation.
A. Solve for the house minimum
B. Spin it once, maybe for a big number, then solve
C. Spin for all consonants, then solve
But whenever I see contestants do option B, they're opening themselves up to lose while just kind of wasting a turn, and sometimes the games come down to hundreds of dollars!
Thanks for letting me rant and let me know your thoughts.
Here's a hypothetical scenario. Say Player 2 just lost her turn somehow, and it's your turn. You're playing in the fourth round, and the puzzle will be completed/a new puzzle will be played for the Final Spin.
The puzzle looks something like this;
BREA_ING NEW _ROUN_
Obviously, you know it and there are three consonants with which you can make money on. However, there's always a risk and you're guaranteed to win $1000 if you solve right now and get the house minimum.
Should you:
A. Solve for the house minimum
B. Spin it once, maybe for a big number, then solve
C. Spin for all consonants, then solve
I think there's one specifically WRONG answer here. And it's B. And I see so many people do it so many times, particularly after Player 2, in this scenario, loses a large sum of money.
In the Round 4 layout for Season 39 (for example), there are 3 spaces you can hit which will cause you to lose your turn/money. That's a 12.5% chance. Otherwise, the other 87.5% of the time you hit money, ranging from $500 to $5000. The average of all dollar amounts for Round 4 is $907.
If we calculate for something called expected value for each scenario, we should figure out what's best.
A. 100% X $1000 = +$1000. You're always winning $1000 when you know the puzzle.
B. 12.5% X -$1000 (you lose your chance at $1K if you lose your turn) + 87.5% X $907. Sum those together and we get an EV of around +$670. But you're already going to win $1000 if you spin only once and don't hit the $5000.
C. For this, the probability of spinning safely on three consecutive spins is 67% (.875^3). For three consecutive spins you could earn on average $2721. (67% x $2721) + (33% x -$1000) gives us an EV of about +$1493.
Now there are some factors I could be leaving out (this is a specific scenario with no double consonants), so please if you think I'm wrong, correct me. There are confounding factors in this situation and things would change depending on the round too; if you hold the MDW, or if you're in Round 3 and there's a chance to get both halves of the car, etc.
So, ranking our options in this situation.
A. Solve for the house minimum
B. Spin it once, maybe for a big number, then solve
C. Spin for all consonants, then solve
But whenever I see contestants do option B, they're opening themselves up to lose while just kind of wasting a turn, and sometimes the games come down to hundreds of dollars!
Thanks for letting me rant and let me know your thoughts.