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Post by ajs723 on Oct 2, 2024 22:26:00 GMT -5
So, I decided to look up the stats because to me, it always seems like the mystery wedge is more likely to be bankrupt. Luckily, you can find those stats online.
Over the last three years, there have been 200 flipped mystery wedges. The results are 10k 77 times. Bankrupt 123 times.
The probability of getting this result with a sample of 200 is 0.0002783.
Can we call a spade a spade here?
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Post by woffan9821 on Oct 3, 2024 0:23:58 GMT -5
With what you're trying to assert, you're making an elementary probability mistake there.
Admittedly, even if you correct it, it's still shockingly low (about a 1 in 1400 chance), but since you're insisting it isn't a fair coin flip: if you ever attend a taping, when the staff removes the wedges, you can always see which Mystery wedge had the bankrupt or $10k. I have never seen two bankrupts in the ~40 episodes I've seen live. If both mystery wedges had a Bankrupt, wouldn't someone have reported it by now?
I'm trying to give a more practical argument than "official rules say it's one of each, illegal to rig a game show, jail", but 1 in 1500 events happen.
(I also question the validity of those stats personally; they miscounted the number of mystery wins there were last season, but I don't think that changes any of my argument)
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Prizes
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Post by Prizes on Oct 4, 2024 0:54:10 GMT -5
It's also not random chance where the $10K is placed. Same deal with the MDW.
I tend to believe wedges are placed accordingly with expected spin power of all sorts. It's why historically your best chance to get the MDW is having an average woman's spin power on the first spin of the game, specifically from the blue podium. While your math is right by pure 50% probability of each outcome assuming the count is correct, this isn't a one-step process to devise to reach its actuality. If a given wedge is 2:1 to be more likely to be landed on than one other given wedge, to really overly simplify, you're going to expect to see results that skew closer to that than 1:1 outcomes of $10K:Bankrupt.
The entirety of a show could easily be put into a projectable model based on call frequencies, expected powers, etc. It's lopsided but by design of showrunner expectancy. If you think about how Price is Right has done similar with the placement of winning keys in Master Key, $5K range cards in Card Game, etc. you get the idea. What would seem to be random chance without really thinking about it as a viewer is psychological manipulation. That's the magic of TV!
Of course, this can be somewhat reasonably solved watching at home too, beyond any pysch edges or probabilities. This isn't as blatant a tell as it was many years ago but because the show encourages you to wave the $10K around and celebrate when this wedge is picked up, it's prone to more wear and wrinkling than the Bankrupt which gets no such action because it isn't celebrated for obvious reasons. When I saw Wheel July 2023, you could tell this when the wedges were being brought out, but you had to be at just the right angle.
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