Post by WayoshiM on Dec 27, 2014 0:35:30 GMT -5
Hi all,
I've caught up on WOFTracking, now that my semester is over... crazy one it was. Anyways, let's take a look at this, something MarioGS has also been looking at closely:
(Left column is wins, right column is all.)
The win % is about average... but we care about the well-sought wedge distribution here, as we have the so-titled "32 Epidemic". This is a fine sample size, and suggests the following distribution:
32k: 16
CAR: 2
40k: 2
45k: 2
50k: 1
100/MIL: 1
Despite some good runs where 9/10 were 32 or something, things have averaged out the past couple weeks and it's settled along what I've felt with my gut, 2/3rds. This is really too much (30 was about half the wedges, 12/24, before) and is sometimes causing some monotony on a show that already has enough of it. With not many changes into S32, this is the one major negative one that I think has hampered the show at times.
If we really need this many more of the minimum to account for the extra 2k, then 3k next season, and so on, then it's a pretty bad gimmick, IMO. It's also retired 35k until presumably S35.
One last note: there has been a perception at this point in the season that when the BR is lost, it seems to NOT be 32k at a clip that doesn't match the current distribution. 29 of 44 BR losses have been 32k so far, which is... just about 2/3rds, right in line with this proposed distribution - no difference in the fraction when it's won or when it's lost. The flukey difference has been 24/31 WINS being the 32, which is a couple (3-4) more than we'd expect. Let's watch this average out over the rest of the season.
I've caught up on WOFTracking, now that my semester is over... crazy one it was. Anyways, let's take a look at this, something MarioGS has also been looking at closely:
$32000 | 24 / 53 | 45.3%
VEHICLE | 1 / 5 | 20.0%
$40000 | 2 / 7 | 28.6%
$45000 | 3 / 7 | 42.9%
$50000 | 0 / 1 | 0.0%
$100000 | 0 / 1 | 0.0%
ONE MILLION | 1 / 1 | 100.0%
------------|---------|-------
TOTAL | 31 / 75 | 41.3%(Left column is wins, right column is all.)
The win % is about average... but we care about the well-sought wedge distribution here, as we have the so-titled "32 Epidemic". This is a fine sample size, and suggests the following distribution:
32k: 16
CAR: 2
40k: 2
45k: 2
50k: 1
100/MIL: 1
Despite some good runs where 9/10 were 32 or something, things have averaged out the past couple weeks and it's settled along what I've felt with my gut, 2/3rds. This is really too much (30 was about half the wedges, 12/24, before) and is sometimes causing some monotony on a show that already has enough of it. With not many changes into S32, this is the one major negative one that I think has hampered the show at times.
If we really need this many more of the minimum to account for the extra 2k, then 3k next season, and so on, then it's a pretty bad gimmick, IMO. It's also retired 35k until presumably S35.
One last note: there has been a perception at this point in the season that when the BR is lost, it seems to NOT be 32k at a clip that doesn't match the current distribution. 29 of 44 BR losses have been 32k so far, which is... just about 2/3rds, right in line with this proposed distribution - no difference in the fraction when it's won or when it's lost. The flukey difference has been 24/31 WINS being the 32, which is a couple (3-4) more than we'd expect. Let's watch this average out over the rest of the season.
